John Cornyn leads MJ Hegar in Texas race for U.S. Senate, UT/TT Ballot finds


U.S. Sen. John Cornyn leads Democratic challenger MJ Hegar by 8 proportion factors in his reelection bid, in accordance with the newest College of Texas/Texas Tribune Ballot.

The ballot discovered 50% of possible voters in Texas want the Republican incumbent, whereas 42% favor Hegar. Kerry Douglas McKennon, a Libertarian, attracted the help of three%.

Within the state’s presidential race, the place President Donald Trump is leading former Vice President Joe Biden 50%-45%, there’s a marked gender hole: Males favor Trump by 16 proportion factors, whereas girls favor Biden by 5 proportion factors. Taken collectively, that quantities to a 21-point distinction in help. Within the Senate race, nonetheless, the hole barely exists: Males favor Cornyn by 8 proportion factors, and ladies favor Cornyn by 4 proportion factors.

And in a generic race for Congress — voters have been requested whether or not they’d favor an unnamed Republican or an unnamed Democrat in a race for their very own congressional district — Republicans had a 7-percentage-point benefit.

“It’s not like Cornyn is blowing out Hegar, however the Cornyn race after which the generic battle for Congress actually look extra like get together [affiliation] is reasserting itself,” mentioned Daron Shaw, co-director of the ballot and a professor of historical past on the College of Texas at Austin. He known as the presidential race a referendum on the president, with completely different outcomes than is perhaps anticipated for a typical contest primarily based on get together.

Hegar, who hasn’t held public workplace, isn’t as properly referred to as Cornyn, who was first elected to statewide workplace in 1990 and was elected to the Senate in 2002. Extra Texas voters considered her positively than negatively — 33% mentioned they’ve a positive opinion of her, whereas 24% had an unfavorable one — and 43% registered no opinion in any respect.

Cornyn was rated positively by 38% of voters, and negatively by the identical proportion. What’s extra, 24% of Texas voters, even after the years of seeing his title on the poll, don’t report having any actual impression of him.

Voters aren’t as properly acquainted with Hegar as together with her opponent, mentioned James Henson, co-director of the ballot and head of the Texas Politics Challenge at UT-Austin.

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“Her destiny, much more than others, goes to be fairly tied to the presidential race. She’s proper there below the race,” he mentioned. “She does have 50% of independents, however 88% of Trump voters are with Cornyn, and 82% of Biden voters are with Hegar.”

Examine Cornyn’s job approval rankings with Ted Cruz, the state’s junior U.S. senator and a former presidential candidate. Solely 12% of Texas voters mentioned both that they’ve a impartial or no opinion about Cruz, whereas 46% reported a positive opinion and 42% mentioned that they had an unfavorable opinion.

Texans gave each senators greater marks than the establishment the place they serve. A majority — 60% — have a unfavourable opinion of Congress, whereas solely 20% mentioned they approve of the job Congress is doing.

The College of Texas/Texas Tribune web survey of 1,200 registered voters was carried out from Sept. 25 to Oct. 4 and has an total margin of error of +/- 2.83 proportion factors. The margin of error for outcomes from 908 possible voters is +/- 3.25 proportion factors. Numbers in charts may not add as much as 100% due to rounding.

Disclosure: The College of Texas at Austin has been a monetary supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan information group that’s funded partly by donations from members, foundations and company sponsors. Monetary supporters play no position within the Tribune’s journalism. Discover a full checklist of them here.

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